Drake's formula for estimating the number of underground civilizations. New Paradox of Drake's Farm and Rivnyannya Historical Estimates of Parameters
Every hour of the conference in the city of Green-Benk, which was held in 1961 in the state of Virginia, USA, was held in 1961, in 1961, the supernumerary of scientific participants, astronomers and astrophysics on the topic of the people ... They have discussed the possibility of earthly coo They just started to get involved in the serious level of receiving and decode radio signals, and started to connect with the civilizations of the largest lights in the galaxy, for additional radio telescopes. So it was that they thought about him, if such a clever civilization was coming from the ground, then, for all the stench, the signals would be emitted and ready for contact with the earthlings. It is only necessary to receive and clearly decode signals. Moreover, in the course of the conference, a problem was posed: how can you find the number of such intelligent civilizations who are ready to contact us?
Literally on the coming day (and at the same time, from 1 to 2 leaf fall), since the price of food is sounded, the American radio astronomer Frank Drake recommends that the formula for calculating the number of subterranean civilizations (N), won
N = R? P? Ne? L? C? T? L, in yak:
- R - the number of stars, which are accepted by the All-important;
- P is the chance that the star has a system of planets;
- Ne - is the fact that there is such a thing among the planets that there will be a chance for the birth of life;
- L - the possibility that life can be born on such a planet;
- F - the definition of intelligent forms of life on the planet;
- C - the real life of the fact that life, which originated on the meaning of the planet, the vibrations of the technogenically developed paths, in her own way, in her own way, for the help of which you can connect through signals into space and you are ready to contact with them;
- T - the standard middle hour, with a stretch of civilization, as I wanted to be in contact with the other lights, constantly receiving radio signals, in the hope of calling from the VC.
N = N *? P? Ne? L? F? C? T / Tg, in yak:
- N * - number of all zoryanny objects of our galaxy;
- Tg is the life hour of our galaxy.
- R - the number of stars is up to 10, which are shown to the child;
- P - priymaєatsya, scho half of the dawn ob'єktiv maє of the planet;
- Ne - z'yasovano, so only two planetary objects can mother life;
- L - equals to 1, if you allow it, then life on the planet is obov'yazkovo vinikna;
- F - the whole honeycomb part of the sense of life on the planet will be reasonable;
- C - only 1% of smart lights, which are ready and ready to contact with other lights;
- T is an indicator of 10,000 rocks (civilization, as a result of technogenic development lives close to 10,000 rocks).
However, for an hour of passing through a designated conference, we could see only a few stars, which can be set from the rock to the rik, so that R. is changed. Take our Sleepy system Then in it you can vibrate as one number of Ne (our Earth), so many (for example, five planets of our system, such as Venus, Earth and Mars and be-like one great companion of the planets-velents of Jupiter or Saturn) about 'In space, there are powers and a description of the planets.
If brothers make predictions with optimistic ones, then our Galaxy is simply filled with lights, which may have enough technogenic development (N), and our civilization is just young and lack of knowledge about them. The new staff immediately became available due to mass information, and then at the sight of all people a thought was formulated and tired, but the earthly civilization is not the same as the All-earthly and earthly rose is sensible.
However, at the end of an hour, an optimistic forecast, which was generated by Drake's formula, is given away. As brothers for the butt of the Sonyachnu system, then life on the planets can be born even more small, and if it is possible, then only by a majestic ball ocean ice to Saturn's companion - Europ. From 1961 to the rock (rіk passage of the Grіn-Benkovskaya conference) earthly astronomers Many planetary systems were seen around the stars, like the boules had already seen for a long time, alas, it's a pity, the stench was even farther away from our hair, Sonyachna. Oskilki їkh planetary ob'ykti, may orbit with the form of strongly vigorous elipsіv, with even great eccentricity (the step of vidhilennya from the circumference of the numerical characteristic of the canonical overflow). That is, temperature indicators, as they float on the cikh planets stretching out to the fate, may even have a great drop and do not go for the development of a big life on them.
It is also known that the necessary indicators, which characterize the building of the water on its surface for the body, like to get involved in the planet, stretching out a great time for an hour First of all, as soon as our Earth is gone, no more such planetary objects have been revealed. It should be explained that the radius of the earth, if the parameters are not guided by a few hundred, then life on the planet will not be born anymore.
In 1981, rotsi astronomers redefined Drake's formula can be stored to modern scientific advances and appearances. The bulo is secured by the value of N, equal to the approximate calculation of 0.003. Tobto 3 thousand (or one of three hundred) systems of dawn, the purchase is guilty of the mother of civilization, as it is possible to bring the developed technogenic base and the power of knowledge to the point of spilkuvannya. Tobto, following the razrakhunks, the number of such civilizations is displayed at 1: 300.
Over the past hour, there are no slips until the advancement of the figure is not spared. Є There is a lot of criticism about the drive of the formula, as it is impossible to give an exact result, but the look has called for the development and vision of ideas (a few million dollars) for the development of astronomy and the impossibility of natural sciences (biology, geology) program z pochuk VTS. If you want, according to the formula, you can definitely present two changes:
- R - then, the number of stars, which were approved for the ric at All-State and that it is possible to be significant;
- P is the value of the fact that the star is a system of planets.
The number of subterrestrial civilizations, as it is necessary to make contact with ours, has been transferred.
Looks like they are, they are great science The date is strictly - not only in rock, but in a month, and in number. However, yak minimum, one of them can be dated literally to chilin. In the middle of 1 to 2 leaf fall in 1961, the fate of the conference participants, which took place in Green Bank, Virginia, USA, sat in the bar for the discussion of the statty, written by the physicists Philip Morris. ) і Giuseppe Cocconi (b.1914). The stench squealed, where the earth could be, the ice began to appear in earnest behind the radio telescopes, the radio signals actually appear, so that the earthly civilizations from the distant space can be received. Just here in the depths of Vsesvita is acting, I want one unearthly civilization, as if it were pragmatic to contact with us, won, ymovirno, they gave us radio signals, and we deprived of the need for evil, the stench was mirrored. At the same time, a task was formed for the coming day of the conference: to assess the number of underground civilizations that are ready to contact us.
The food was delivered, and was sent to the new one for the coming day, having proponated the American radio astronomer Frank Drake. According to the formula, the number of underground civilizations N become:
de R - the number of stars at the All-State; R - imovability of the visibility of the star of the planetary system; N e - the fact that the middle of the planets is a planet of the terrestrial type, on which life is born; L - ymovіrnіst of the real incipient life on the planetі; WITH - It’s the fact that the smarter life went along the technogenic road of development, broke the call, T- averagely not an hour, by stretching out a bazh to make contact, civilization will send radio signals into space, so that they will call us. The winner of Drake's formula is, if you want, not in the fact that everything will get lost, but in the fact that I will show all the steps of a human misunderstanding from the real one, I will ask the All-Holy, I would like, approximately, to distribute one purely predictable number of citing on a number of imovirnіsnyh evaluations. At least, in such a viglyad, everything starts in the eyes of the mensh mysteriously.
At the time of the conference in Grin-Benk, we are given the number in the right part of the formula. R. If you have any numbers, then up to terrestrial planets ( N e) It is possible to navigate in our Sleeping System from one (only the Earth) to five (Venus, Earth, Mars and one of the great companions of Jupiter and Saturn) of space objects of the planetary type. With optimistic forecasts similar to the genus Vihodilo, the Galaxy is literally teeming with millions of technologically advanced civilizations ( N), And mi - in essence - juniori in tsіy "galactic lіzі". All kinds of information innocently flooded into the mass information, and through them - mass information, and people simply stopped thinking, so that the understanding of the earthly mind is true truth.
However, since 1961, the rock has passed more than one decade, and more than a decade, more than one change in the one that needs to stream optimism, a combination of ideas by Drake's formula in the mass of earthlings, as they missed the brothers for roses. This year is known, for example, on the view of the overwhelmingly optimistic participants of the Grinbenk group, on the view of the overworldly optimistic participants of the Granbank group, life in the boundaries of our Sleepy system and the pose of the Earth in the land of small ). I, I want to see the 1961 rocky we have seen as many planetary systems near earlier as we see them, all the stinks look little like our Sonyachnu system, the fragments of the planet there, great, are wandering around to reach the endless winter meanings eccentricity And this means that the temperature difference on them is unacceptable from the point of view of the development of a bile life. As a matter of fact, wither, wither, wither, wake up, wake up on the surface of the planetary bed in a stretch of millions of rocks without a vaporization; the change of the radius of the earth's orbit will lead to the fact that our planet will become irrelevant for life.
So it became, in 1981, the growth and my colleague-astronomer Robert Rood (b. 1942) was rubbed into Drake's formula and they were critically reappraised in the light of modern scientific knowledge. Having submitted all the estimates of the values in the right part of the formula in our hands, we rejected the values N, Approximately equal to 0.003. That is, three thousand (or approximately one of three hundred) zoryanny systems are in their warehouses technologically developed, as bazhaє spilkuvatisya civilization with us. Anyway, if you want, it means that the signal from the side of the underground rosum appeared in our Galaxy in the last 1/300 part of the term. In any case, the rate on the subject of the wickedness in our land: 1: 300. Naturally, twenty years later, nothing changed, and they did not give any signs of the life of the earthly civilization. Oh, the scandal is trifling, no more than ten years, it is financed both for the state rakhunok, and with private funds. It’s a pity ... The people who didn’t know these woeful underground brothers by reason, didn’t seem to be talking about those who would try to come into contact with them. That is good. Since then, we have accumulated helpless absolutely reliable tributes for the one who is there dumb.
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Not so long ago, on our resource, "" published materials for the name "", in which the food has been destroyed by the All-Earth Intelligent Civilizations. If there was the very possibility of being put on the basis of the summaries, then here we can see the formula, as it is unreasonable to serve the above-named paradox. The formula is called Drake's rivnyannyam.
Deyakі zagalnі danі
Read more about it, because there is a special project pid by name"SETI" (abbreviation of Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence). New projects should be entered and come straight into the noise of underground civilizations and entered into contact with them. The project is already a collection of dozens of rocks (since 1959), practically from that moment, if the American astronomer Frank Drake had conducted his first experiment. "SETI" tinkles are based on the hearsay of the radiochilles, which can help the civilization of the space. Drake himself is also an indicator of high-tech suspension, as well as the most acceptable and intelligent way for the joke of the earthly forms of life.
The effect of any signal on the country is about 500 light rocks, practically zero, so 500 light rocks - the center of the border, in the radius of which modern technologies You can know if there is a radio signal. Wow, the so-called "Great Bezmovnist", as radio telescopes are constantly showing up, not to talk about those who are not moody at All. The first chance of hardening something, something else, with a solid part of it, may appear less than that, as the earth's "catch" will be able to increase the range of receiving the signal more than 900 light rockets.
In the middle of the last century, there is little people on the topic, even less tribute. However, already at that hour, since the Radiansky cosmonaut Yuriy Gagarin became the first of the people, they went to the Earth's orbit (1961 Rik), Frank Drake smashed his rivals, so that he allowed an approximate estimate of the galaxy of young children. Tse rivnyannya ґruntutsya on the methods of detecting electro-magnetic impulses.
Drake's rivnyannya
Drake's equals are formulated as follows:
N = R * Fp * Ne * Fl * Fi * Fc * L, de:
N - the number of intelligent civilizations that are ready before making contact
R - the number of stars, which are stretched to the rock in the galaxy "Chumatsky shlyakh"
Fp - the skyrock, which may be the planet in its orbits
Ne - the average number of planets and their supporters, who are suitable for the birth of life
Fl - the sense of life in the future for the whole planet
Fi - the appearance of intelligent forms of life on the planets
Fc - the ratio of the number of planets, on which intelligent forms of life are created for contact and whispering, up to the number of planets, on which are the most intelligent forms of life
L - an hour, holding out a wiser life, you can come into contact and
Drake's analysis
Looking at Drake's name, it becomes obvious that the value of N cannot be exactly indicated. Until then, as it collapses along the level of evil to the right, the estimates of all values become more and more abstract. However, the price does not seem to be deprived of numbers. Deyaky preconceptions perekonani, but the formula is given є deprived of the way of deyakoi organizing of human negligence. And if you look at the hypothesis of understanding the earthly mind from the essence of a mathematical point of view, then the possibility of thinking about the number of planetary civilizations of the sutta is interchangeable. The L value is the most important in the United States. Lyudin cannot be noble, although civilization is well developed and technologically advanced. And if it’s possible to let it go, that the planetary civilization is all alone, and if it’s a long stretch of rock, or if it’s a matter of fact, then it will be enough to nurture L.
Ale zamatisya jokes pozumu pozumu lease for the help of the hearing of radiohvil bulo b pardon. The directors of the development of astrobiology and cosmology of the development of human space and the development of the development of other forms of life have changed greatly. On the ear of the "SETI" sound, they propounded the rapid development of earthly radio technologies and the growth of radio exchange, ale the "dot-dash-speck" links on the smallest companions, to direct the focus to the earth in their telecoms, for Internet traffic and cable TV, which means that no serious radio signals from the Earth are available for at least a hundred rockets.
The most weak fellow of the formula is the number of planets on which intelligent forms of life can develop. Imovirno, їkh number of guilty but in the fringes of 10 thousand in our galaxy. Alas, in Denmark, there are some reasons for that, if there is a basic principle, how can you direct the primordial substance on the way to the development of Homo Sapiens. I want to lose food without explanation, as long as there is no proof of life I would like to be on the same planet of the Sonyachnoy system.
Apart from that, Drake cannot be considered as worthy of respect and such indicators, as in the galaxy itself and chemical-mechanical parameters, for example, the manifestation of singing elements that are necessary for the formation of planets and the birth of life. As a matter of fact, before the thought of the deyakie fakhivts, Drake's equal in uvaz is not Vsesvit, as it is constantly changing into dynamism, albeit especially cosmological steel.
In the formulas, the presence of the approximate number of planets is of the type of the Earth, but there is no estimate of whether on these planets there are intelligent forms of life. The majestic wake of our galaxy and the fact that the wiser life on the planets could be present and 2 or 4.5 billion years old, however, could still fade away, did not give practically no room for the emergence of radiochievements.
On the current day, astronomers have seen about two thousand sleepy planets. And the backward number of stars, a little up to Sontsya, can become 40%. Albeit a lot of the planet є zanadto great and to be in orbit even close to "their" stars. They call the planet "Hot Jupiter". However, according to the forecasts of the well-known specialists, if the method is polished and a joke, then it will be possible to know the planet of a smaller size and with more suitable orbital characteristics. Plus to the end, for the last twenty years, until the end of the day, it’s far into the Chumatsky Way, there can be millions of planets in the Chumatsky Way, on which life can be learned in extreme minds, for example, when you move in carbon dioxide, On glybin up to 10,000 meters and navit in hydrochloric acid.
Ale, do not marvel at the "ogrіhi", Drake’s rіvnyannya drew heavily into the misinterpretation of people. The head rank, it served as a point of reference for the assessment of astrobiological science. The distinguished American astrophysicist Karl Sagan highly appreciated those who showed a high level of emergence of the rosy underground life. And not so long ago, in 2010, the Italian astronomer Claudio McCone published his version of Drake's rivnyannya - statistically Drake's equal, as it is more flexible, more and more superior. For the additional new formula of Maccona, there is a significant difference, but only in the fringes of the Chumatsky Way there can be 4 590 underground civilizations, which is more than 1000 converting the number, as was the case in the classic version. Comic, the new formula showed that there can be up to 15 785 people in human civilization, with high technologies.
If there were any more galactic spirits, they were overwhelmed at the same time, and then one in one, the average value dropped to 28,845 light rock, so that it would be unwise to be uncomfortable if there was any contact between many spirits, never mind to change from a wide range of lights. First of all, there was a large number of civilizations and there was a lack of communication between them, and there were even more serious technological problems.
As a matter of fact, Drake’s ryvnyannya for a scrupulous and detailed vivchennyu, and, not being a fakhivtsy at the general galusa, do it neatly and really rozibratis, who what. But with our help, I’m not even more clear about the explanation, but instead of referring to those who, before feeding, the earther intelligence, in all light, should go more and more seriously.
The number of subterrestrial civilizations, as it is necessary to make contact with ours, has been transferred.
At first glance, it seems that the great science of science is dated strictly - not only in rock, but in a little bit, and in number. However, yak minimum, one of them can be dated literally to chilin. In the middle of the fall from 1 to 2 in 1961, the fate of the conference participants was held in Green Bank, Virginia, USA. ) і Giuseppe Cocconi (b.1914). The stench squealed, where the earth could be, the ice began to appear in earnest behind the radio telescopes, the radio signals actually appear, so that the earthly civilizations from the distant space can be received. Just here in the depths of Vsesvita is acting, I want one unearthly civilization, as if it were pragmatic to contact with us, won, ymovirno, radio signals were given to us, and we deprived of the need for evil, the stench was mirrored. At the same time, a task was formed for the coming day of the conference: to assess the number of underground civilizations that are ready to contact us.
The food was delivered, and was sent to the new one for the coming day, having proponated the American radio astronomer Frank Drake. Here, with the formula, the number of underground civilizations N becomes:
de R - the number of scorched stars at Vsesvit; R is the value of the visibility at the star of the planetary system; N e - the value of what is in the middle of the planets є a planet of the terrestrial type, in which life is conceived; L - the value of the real birth of life on the planet; W - ymovіrnіst of the fact that the wiser life went along the man-made path of development, broke the call and the bazar make contact, nareshty, T - the average hour, stretching out what bazah to enter into contact, us. The winner of Drake's formula is, if you want, not in the fact that everything will get lost, but in the fact that I will show all the steps of a human misunderstanding from the real one, I will ask the All-Holy, I would like, approximately, to develop one purely predictable number of citing on a number of imovirnіsnyh evaluations. At least, in such a viglyad, everything starts in the eyes of the mensh mysteriously.
At the time of the conference in Grin-Benk, one big-mensh is given the number in the right-hand part of the formula, the number is richerly set by R. earth) to five (Venus, earth, Mars and one of the great companions of Jupiter and Saturn) of cosmic objects of the planetary type. With optimistic forecasts similar to the kind of vihodilo, the Galaxy is literally teeming with millions of technologically advanced civilizations (N), and mi - by the day - junior in a "galactic liz". All kinds of information innocently flooded into the mass information, and through them - mass information, and people simply stopped thinking, so that the understanding of the earthly mind is true truth.
However, since 1961, the rock has passed more than one decade, and more than a decade, more than one change in the one that needs to stream optimism, a combination of ideas by Drake's formula in the mass of earthlings, as they missed the brothers for roses. This year is known, for example, on the view of the overwhelmingly optimistic participants of the Grinbenk group, on the view of the overworldly optimistic participants of the Granbank group, life in the boundaries of our Sleepy system and the pose of the Earth in the land of small ). I, I want to see the 1961 rocky we have seen as many planetary systems as before, as soon as we see them, all the smells look little similar to our Sonyachnu system; they are seen as unacceptable from the point of view of the development of the bile life. As a matter of fact, wither, wither, wither, wake up, wake up on the surface of the planetary bed in a stretch of millions of rocks without a vaporization; the change of the radius of the earth's orbit will lead to the fact that our planet will become irrelevant for life.
So it became, in 1981, the growth and my colleague-astronomer Robert Rood (b. 1942) was rubbed into Drake's formula and they were critically reappraised in the light of modern scientific knowledge. Having submitted all the estimates of the values in the right part of the formula in our hands, we deducted the value of N, approximately equal to 0.003. That is, three thousand (or approximately one of three hundred) zoryanny systems are in their warehouses technologically developed, as bazhaє spilkuvatisya civilization with us. Anyway, if you want, it means that the signal from the side of the underground rosum appeared in our Galaxy in the last 1/300 part of the term. In any case, the rate on the subject of the wickedness in our land: 1: 300. Naturally, twenty years later, nothing changed, and they did not give any signs of the life of the earthly civilization. Oh, the scandal is trifling, no more than ten years, it is financed both for the state rakhunok, and with private funds. It’s a pity ... The people who didn’t know these woeful underground brothers by reason, didn’t seem to be talking about those who would try to come into contact with them. That is good. Then we have accumulated helpless absolutely trustworthy tributes for those who are not there. \
Frank Donald Drake
Frank Donald Drake, b. 1930
American astronomer. Born in Chicago, navchavsya at the Faculty of Electronics, Cornell University. Having listened to the course of lectures by the renowned astronomer Otto Struve (1897-1963) about the formation of planetary systems, for all his life he was fired up with interest to feed the earthly life and civilization. Served in the American Navy, lastly worked at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO), Cornelian University and Californian University (m Santa Cruz). For Struve Drake's input, he organized a 28-meter radio telescope on the basis of the NRAO (Ozma project) - the first in the light of the visual-restructuring attachment, specially opened to try to evolve from the earth