Zmіna klіmatu: scho check to Russia. In Russia, the global warming and change of the climatic belts are growing. Will I be blocking us? If the planet is ditched in pieces
For a long time, the temperature on the territory of Russia has been growing for the rest of the capital through the global warming two times more, less in general across the Earth. The European part of the country goes even higher - here the temperature, according to the estimates of forecasters, and the growth is three times higher. "Rosіyska sіmka" was trying to decide what to check to the inhabitants of the middle smuga after 20 years.
From Bilorusi to the Volga
Until the middle of Russia, it was taken from the European part of the country from the cordon to the Bilorusian at the entrance to the Volga region at the descent, from the Arkhangelsk region and Karelia at night to Chornozem at the beginning. Centers, which are characterized by a continental climate. Yogo vіdmіnnі rice: stably specotno summer and frosty winter with a small amount of siege, a little bit of high cost and strong vіtra.
The number of temperatures, as a rule, is high both in pre-season, and in a normal turn. Moreover, the indicator can sometimes be seen in one, there and in different regions. For example, the mid-winter temperature in the Bryansk region, the temperature rose at the beginning of the winter, becomes -8 degrees over Celsius, while in the winter-winter Yaroslavl region it is already -12 degrees. The same vlіtku: in the middle in the Tver region, as it is located at the first entry, the temperature is 17 degrees, and in the northern Lipetsk region - even 21 degrees.
degree of growthє
True, at the very next hour, meteorologists will have a chance to look at the "standard meaning", singing by the experts. Due to the tribute to the center "Antistikhiya" for 2013, for the last hundred years, the temperature in the territory of Russia in the middle grew twice or twice more, lower in the little cocks of the planet. Moreover, fakhivtsi vvazayut, as the main part of the country and distant in the XXI century "will be known in the area of greater warming."
European Russia will have a chance to get on with it, having passed over the head of the Hydromecenter Roman Vilfand. According to the estimates, in the middle smoothies the average temperature of growth is three times higher, lower in the middle on the Earth.
“The average temperature of warming climate is 0.17 degrees for 10 years. On the European territory of Russia, the speed is three times higher and reach 0.54 degrees in 10 rockets, "the chief meteorologist said in 2017. For his words, the price is tied to peatlands that are constantly burning in the region and to the vision of greenhouse gases.
In such a rank, even after 20 years of the middle, the temperature in the middle smoothie can grow by one degree more. According to the assessments of the winners, such a correction does not greatly change the climate, critical changes can become, as an indicator of virost by two degrees. Ale deyakі inheritance can be seen at the same time.
Hour of change
Not so long ago - in 2011, the specialists of the Faculty of Geography of the Moscow University of Economics Oleksandr Kislov, Mykola Kasimov and other colleagues for the additional CMIP3 model analyzed geography, ecology economical inheritance of global warming to the climate in the Western European region and in Western Siberia in the XXI century. We were able to survive, as a result of the increase in temperatures, the rate of permafrost changes, the runoffs of the river change, as a result of the increase in temperatures, the agroclimatic and hydroenergetic resource changes.
For children, the stench came to the end of the day, but climatic destruction as a minimum in a short-term perspective “nowhere to produce positive results” as in an ecological and in an economical plan. In the first place, it is possible to ochikuvati significant depletion of hydraulic resources at the beginning of the European Union and activation of the process of desertification - through more speculative weather.
The results of the analysis of Russian experts are confirmed by the data of foreign experts. So, in the last year, in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, the results were published until the end of the day, and the temperature changed by two degrees until the number of dry land rises. There are also a number of hurricanes and natural disasters - in which skin fates can also overtake the inhabitants of the middle swamp of Russia.
Looking ahead
However, not all experts are good old panicuvati. The same Roman Vil'fand in a commentary on the Rossiyskaya Gazeta rozpoviv that the temperature rise by a second or two degrees before the end of the century is one of the scenarios of global warming, the titles of myakim. As part of the new vision, we will propose more dry land for the new regions and for the improvement of business - for the winter.
It looks like a bigger hard option, which means that the transmission is increased by two degrees even up to 2087 rubles. According to the new growth temperature, it is brought up to the adjustment of the level of water, the increase of dry periods. Wilfand meant that with such a scenario, the climat would not turn in the wrong direction. For example, winter in Moscow will become a little bit, and summer years will become more speculative, well, on the thought of a fakhivtsya, it is disgusting for people, who adapt to life in the middle latitudes.
“Yakvit, how in Moscow will the temperature be the same as in Stavropol? There is 35-degree temperature. And even if in Moscow the temperature reaches 30 degrees - it is not a safe phenomenon, "- pidkresliv vin.
Do not allow such "not safe appearances", vlada bagatokh krain, including Russia, to live in, as it is allowed to enclose the growth of the average light temperature. So, in 2015, the rotsi mayzhe 200 krajn wrote to Parizka for the sake of please, as they regulate, come in too low in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from 2020 rotsi. The document was already ratified by 96 powers, and it was submitted to Russia for the sake of actively negotiating. At the same time, vlada rosіyska look and come in, poklikanі struggling with global warming. And what the stench will be more effective, the less time-consuming Russian chekatime і in 20, і in 40, and in 80 years.
Climatic changes on the Earth can be not only steps in nature. A spirited and catastrophic zsuv, which is thirsty for overzealous people, including those who come in to react. Such a basic version of the additional story "Weather report: 2010-2020", prepared by professional futurologists for the replacement of the US Department of Defense. і the supernatural power of nuclear powers through the world's water resources.
"Strategic forecast for change to climate Russian Federation for the period 2010 - 2015 and I am pouring into the galuzy of the economy of Russia. " All the services of Rosgidromet were preparing the forecast. Keruv in the project is the head of the All-Russian Meteorological Organization, and in the same head of Rosgidromet Oleksandr Ivanovich Bedritsky.
Vzagal, tsi dan is even more diagnostically. Paranoid Americans predict all kinds of hazel in all, Crimea of America. And our "fahіvtsі" vzagalі viveli yakus middle temperature on the basis of the license, none of them got used to.
American economists from the Pentagon predicted a climatic dynamics until 2020, and geopolitical changes on the planet in conjunction with a climatic dynamism. At the same time, Rosgidromet published its forecast for Russia. You yourself will have a chance to familiarize yourself with two short summaries of the drive, and the development of the power of the visitor.
In charge, PhD, DBA, pr. Andriy Gennadiyovich Shaligin
Author's forecasts - Peter Schwartz and Douglas Rendall - have the power of what, as a result of natural destructions, behind the call of the new laws of life, the Svitovy Ocean. Europe, Asia i Pivnichna America wake up to the sweet warmth. And in Pivdenniy pivkuli, navpaki, the camp is specotnish.
Behind the words of the vchenykh, the Earth has already survived about 8,200 years ago. People see, the wakefulness, the call has recently become behind the historical worlds of the manifestation - Male icy. Vono trivialo from about 1300 to 1850 rik. Through the pogirshennya weather minds The Europeans had a chance to leave Greenland, the civilization of the Vikings began. Lishe since 1315. until 1319 rіk hunger was victorious in tens of thousands of people, to be received in additional events. Altogether there are fewer people in Bulo Kudi.
Uninvolved on the giant growth of scientific and technical resources, people and now ukraine urge in front of the forces of nature. The population of the Earth is majestic, and a part of them lives in zlidnyah, as well as in areas that are "risen" from a natural point of view. Once, if there is a catastrophic meal to the climate, in the capacity of the main problems, there will be a lack of food, water, strategic copalins (not in the middle of the naphtha). All of them are soil for the military. It seems to be "non-minuchal" about the prowess and the expansion of the nuclear issue.
"Opportunities in the light of all five of the key grain-producing regions (USA, Australia, Argentina, Russia, China and India)," the documents say, a number of regions, hiba scho in chotirokh - five. In the minds of the global interconnection, to be in the background, the State is getting more and more challenging for the economic cataclysm, wicked by the meteorological meteorological changes in the main people of the country.
It’s alarming to become real, on globalization, at any time in that viglyad, as it’s going to come at once, it seems, it’s possible to put a chrest. The picture of the rose and the fortune of the land and the regions will be added to the picture, if the earthly mind quickly changes the climatic mind, and at the same time reveals about the real good-naturedness. As futurists take advantage of, in an unenviable camp they can find their way through the marriage of food and the mass movement of the population of Europe, as “it will become colder, dry, windy, and will be more similar to Siberia”. Greater cold winters and more speculative years will create widespread famine in China.
More beautifully for all, as it is possible to guess, America is guilty of surviving a climatic catastrophe, if I do not want to be protected from a decrease in the efficiency of soil. It is unlikely that you will see the edge of other people's welds. All in all, you can see the identity of what you think in your order nuclear strike India, Pakistan and China will be drawn into the near-conflagration through the flows of businessmen, as well as the rights to the earth and the wealth of foreign markets. As soon as the whole planet is tight, it is not safe to navigate the bastions of democracy and modern civilization from the indulgent scenes. Take a wish for a hypothetical conflict in Europe through the water and food. And Let's get the States to stream and flood the deserted lands from the other lands. The Ministry of Defense of the United States over what to contemplate, formulating a plan for the future.
On the geopolitical scene, vvazhayut vcheni, seemingly fantastic and super-versatile possibilities. “With the help of the States and Canada, we can become one of the people who have fallen asleep to guard the cordons,” the author says. - For Canada can shut down all of its hydropower resources, solving energy problems for the United States. Pivnich and Pivden Korea can join an alliance, so that it can be established with only highly blamed technologies and nuclear weapons. Europe can act as a single unit, having managed the problems of migration European powers and having secured the defense of the aggressors.
Russia, with abundant reserves of minerals, oil and natural gas, can come to Europe. " Ale itself, through its wealth of Russia, seems to be ready. You can, їy judged the article as a free oasis, on how to rely on hungry susіdi.
2012 rock - Zhorstoka on dry land and cold to marry the population of the Scandinavian powers for the day, how to marry on the side of the first lands of the European Union;
2015 - Winning conflict in the middle of the EU with the drive of food and water supply, to produce a bit and tension in diplomatic letters;
2018 - Russia joins the EU, providing it with energy resources;
2020 - Ide migratsiya population z pivnichnyh regions, Such, yak Niderlandi and Nimechchin, in the direction of Spain and Italy;
2020 - Increase of the essence with the drive of the water-cooling system and the imigratsiya;
2022 - Entry between France and Nimechchinoy through commercial access to the Rhine;
2025 - ЄC close to the drop;
2027 - There will be a migratory trend in the land of Seredzemnom, such as Algeria, Morocco and Izrail;
2030 - Mayzhe 10% The European population is relocating to the region.
2010 rock - Pokykordonnі essences and conflіkti mіzh Bangladesh, India and China with one-hour mass migration right in the middle of Myanmi;
2012 roku - Regional instability of the signal to Japan to increase the potential of the new power injection;
2015 - Strategic pleasing to both Japan and Russia about the management of energy resources in Siberia and Sakhalin;
2018 - China is going to get involved in Kazakhstan to seize pipelines, to act to sabotage the rioters and zlochintsi at all times;
2020 - continuous conflict in Pivdenno-Skhidniy Asia; take the fate of M'yanma, Laos, V'utnam, India, China.
2025 - Risko to sink the internal mind in China, which leads to the huge war and the near-cordon war;
2030 - Growth of tension between China and Japan through the energy resources of Russia.
2010 rock - Trade with Canada and Mexico in connection with growing stress through water resources;
2012 rock - Potik of businessmen for the first US conflict and to Mexico from the islands of the Caribbean Sea;
2015 - Migration of Europeans to the New States (mostly large);
2016 - Conflict with European regions for the drive of the rights to the management of the rib industry;
2018 - Zakhist of Pivnichnaya America along the perimeter, the root of the integrated system and safety from Canada and Mexico:
2020 - The Ministry of Defense is starting to provide food to protect cordons and stream the stream of businessmen from the Caribbean basin and Europe;
2020 - Increase prices for naphtha, at that hour without any supplies to block up conflicts in the zones of the Persian outflow and the Caspian Sea;
2025 - In connection with the internal struggle in the Saudi Arabia, China and the United States are drawn to the Persian inflow - for direct confrontation.
Would you be able to protect yourself from all kinds of neglect? On the thought of the authors of the additional reason, to achieve a successful natural cataclysm zoom out against the US and Australia, such as “to give yourself a fortune, some of their resources and reserves, so they allow themselves to reach self-care”. Russia, tsilkom ymovirno, will be more important. “To see some of the land of Skhidnoy Europe, as it is more and more important to pass the population through the falling supply of food, drive that energy, - paint a gloomy picture of the author. - Smell wonder at Russia, the population is already speeding up, and you need to get access to grain, minerals and energy resources. To see Japan, as it is suffering from the flooding of coastal places and the accumulation of fresh water. Yak dzherelo energiji vona razglyadaє naftogazovі resources of the Russian island Sakhalin ".
The author of the additional information, folded up for the Office of Foreign Assessments to the Pentagon, does not ask the United States to inaccurately get ready to respond to the possibility of changing the climate. For cob stink rekomenduyut preventivnі go into the main NAUKOVO vlastivostі: polіpshiti modelі peredbachennya klіmatu, zіbrati in vseosyazhnu modelі system peredbachennya ekologіchnih, ekonomіchnih, sotsіalno-polіtichnih naslіdkіv klіmatichnih for Change, rozrobiti techniques otsіnki vrazlivostі Kraina, pov'yazanoї of mozhlivimi klіmatichnimi zrushennyami, stvoriti groupies reaguvannya on such cataclysms (for example, without interruptions in securing the suspension with water and food) and conducting a survey of new methods, vivchit and "geoengineering options" control of the climate. It is recommended not to forget about the good old diplomacy.
All in all, it’s possible, but a recommendation to become unsolicited for ten years. At the same time, they do not cry out for the words that were written in the background. The stench p_dkreslyuyut, scho proponated by them scenarios even maloimovirni. Along with that, the specificity of the Pentagon’s activity is “mirkuvati about nemislim”.
Busy tse zovsim not on the marne, as you can sit on the first glance. Even back in 1983, the American military establishment decided that one of the authors of the document, P. Schwartz, was a long-standing consultant to the United States. And in 1995, it was possible to see the possibility of terrorizing vikoristovuyu to deal a blow to the wormholes of the All-Holy Shopping Center in New York.
“Strategic forecast for changes to the climate of the Russian Federation for the period 2010 - 2015. and I am pouring in on the galusies of the economy of Russia ”, I do not mind the analysis, as I do.
Literally all Roshydromet services were prepared for the forecast - hydrologists, geophysics, polar explorers, oceanologists, and space meteorology specialists. And the keruv in the project is a special head of the All-Holy Meteorological Organization, and in the same is the head of Rosgidromet Oleksandr Ivanovich Bedritsky.
Plus warmer for Russia: the rivers will be less freezing in the winter and earlier they will ring out from the ice of the canopy. And this means that more vantages can be transported along the lines. Until 2010 - 2015 rocky along the Siberian rivers, Kami and її tributaries, ships can go for 15 - 27 days for more rivers, less at a time.
And the axis in Pivnichny Ice ocean the ice situation will be lost. Swimming in Pivnichny sea route Without krigolam, we can lose 10 - 15 dB per ric (in the case of the last 2 months!), and in the vicinity of rock you can get stuck. Through strong weaknesses and in times of frequent ice storms, and in the northern seas, there will be a chance to grow up with an iceberg. The floating mountains are not safe for titanium, but for naphtha and gas drilling platforms in Arctic.
Spring floods in the nearest 10 years can be dashing in the Arkhangelsk region, the Republic of Komi, in the Urals, in places and villages on the Unisei and Deer and in the tributaries of the Volga Caucasus, in Krasnodar On the river Lena in Yakutia, the most severe floods will be feasting on two more frequent occasions, not at once!
In front of the Urals, in the Altai, in the Western Siberia, you will get better 5 times stronger, not very much.
As far as all regions of Russia are concerned, there is a lowland place, such as the bay, spring is not very skinny. As soon as the flood is trivial in the middle of 12 days, and then the water subsides, then by 2015 the rock on the chavny on the streets will have to swim even better, for 24 days on the river! The prospect of becoming "gondoliers" є among the residents of the center and the European part of Russia, Shidny Siberia, the wine of the Asian part of the country and Kamchatka.
Krim spring waters, with winds to clutter up the strong boards. Catastrophic - in Dagestan, in the lower reaches of the Terek.
At the Distant Descent and in Primorye (Primorsky and Khabarovsk Territories, Amursk and Sakhalin Oblasts, and the Jewish District) flood boards will occur 2 - 3 times more often, not at once. And the Pivnichny Caucasus, the Stavropol Territory and the Sayans flow through the boards more and more and more and more - sometimes more and more often, less ninety.
Leave one region of the bayє, there will be suffering from the sprague. Water deficiency in Balgorod and Kursk region, Kalmiki. There, for one person, 1000 - 1500 m3 of water is taken to the river - for the international classification, the price is even lower, or to navigate critical water supply. In Moscow and Pidmoskov, the population is growing even more, and it may not be possible there.
Rosgidromet is concerned about serious environmental disasters - bottling of naphtha and vikidіv gas through accidents on pipelines. On the right, there are more Russian pipelines prompted by volumes 25 - 30, and the term of operation will end. In the first place of problems, it will be necessary to check there, de pipelines to cross the lines:
On the Upper and Middle Volz and tributaries in the Nizhny Novgorod, Orenburz, Perm, Samara, Saratov, Ulyanovsk regions, Bashkortostan, Mary El, Mordovia, Tatarstan, Udmurt;
On the rivers of the Pivdenny Federal District;
On the rivers of Siberia in the Tyumen region, in the Krasnoyarsk region, Novosibirsk, Omsk, Tomsk and Irkutsk
areas;
Near the Khabarovsk Territory and on Sakhalin.
Until 2015, the opal period will be shortened by 3 - 4 days. 5 days less batteries can be hot for residents of the ancient regions of the Primorsky Territory, Sakhalin and Kamchatka. Nachebto nebagato - ale yaksho porahuvati kozhen budynok in the skin, the economy of vyde is decent.
According to the forecast of Rosgіdromet, the repair will be carried out in part, nіzh nіnі. The European Territory of Russia and Primor'ya are in the first place.
And it’s more and more for us to get znemagati from the specs - to come all over Russia so called “heat bad” (in a simple way - a few days later the thermometers will go off scale for +30). Naygirshe in the spec is brought to the inhabitants of megalopolises. And in the sense of finance - more pennies before the air conditioning of offices and apartments. Forecasters vvazhayut, well, it is necessary to go early for the preparation of physicians - they knew how ailments get stricken in the spec. I new booths will be equipped with a rosary for the minimum weather.
for Silskoy government warmer and cinnamon, and loud. Kindly, you will freeze the soil less. Already at once, winter can be violated there, devilishly lost in frost: in the steppes of the Volga region, in the Holy Urals and in some districts of Western Siberia and the European part of Russia.
Have grown-ups more than an hour for those who are virgin and give fruit. My agrometeorology should be called “the growth of the growing season”. It’s an hour, if it’s not colder on the street +5.
In the European part of Russia (in the Pivdenny Federal District) and in Siberia (in the Yamal and Taimir), the heat of the time of the rock has increased for 5 - 10 days.
Until 2015, the growing season will be 10 - 20 days more, not at a time. A bag of rich varieties of corn and a sleepyhead will grow at the latitudes of Moscow, Volodymyr, Yoshkar-Oli and Chelyabinsk. And in the Pivnichniy Caucasus and in the Lower Volga region, vineyards, bavan fields, tea plantations and oranges will be planted - all at once in Uzbekistan. At the winter and winter visit of Russia, in the Volgo-Vyatsky district and at the Far Descent, the growth rate increases by 10 - 15%.
And those are disgusting if there will be more dry land - two or three times! Through the price of the Pivnichny Caucasus, grain crops flow by 22%, into the Black Earth Region - by 7%.
The whole country has even better days. In the middle - for 5 days per year. And in the "combustible" regions themselves - for 7 days and more. Most often there will be a list:
on pivdni Khanti-Mansiyskiy district,
in the Kurgan region,
in the Omsk region,
in the Novosibirsk region,
in the Kemerovo region,
in the Tomsk region,
in the Krasnoyarsk Territory,
in the Altai Territory,
in Yakutia.
At the closest ten years, "spring" is coming to the first cordon of the frost zone. In the Irkutsk and Arkhangelsk regions, the Khabarovsk Territory, and Komi, there is smuga a few dozen kilometers wide. And in the Khanti-Mansiyskiy okruzi and Yakutia - up to 100 - 150 km. Subsurface soil is not safe for roads and wellbeing - the foundation can be "led". In the first place, Chukotka may suffer, the settlements near the upper reaches of the Indigirka and Kolimi, the first class of Yakutia, Zakhidno-Sibirskaya Rivnina, Karske Uzbekrezhzhi, Novaya Zemlya and European Extreme Pivn. The land can be "vitekti" from the Bilibinska AES, naphtha and footwear complexes and - most of the time - stores of radioactive access to Noviy Zemli.
Forecast until 2015 rock
The first occasion of the "Strategic Forecast": in Russia, it has become warmer, and in the main, in the rest 15 years. Over the entire XX century, the average temperature in the country increased by 1 degree. First, half of the increase in temperature "needs" fell on the last ten years of the century (1990 - 2000).
Warmer with us, as everything is in, s national features- Listed in the main charge and attachments. And on the way to the Urals - stronger, not on the European part of the land. Behold the axis of the autumn, as it was a hundred years old, so it was lost! And in the remote regions of Russia, the weather became colder, lower than before.
What will you give? Until 2015, the average temperature has increased by 0.6 degrees. I know it is "asymmetric": in winter it will become warmer by 1 degree, and in summer - by 0.4. Garna is a novelty for lizhniks and lovers of gratitude in photography: for a period of time until 2015, it will be more practical for all Russia (by 4 - 6%). And at the weekend of Skhidny Siberia - by as much as 7 - 9%.
Nature has more and more nasty weather
The very optimistic part of the forecast is simple and simple wisdom. Є the weather is nasty in nature, and if it is, it is more! My meteorologists are called “not safe hydrometeorological events”. on just my- all the things that make our life very spoky: squalls that angry, lutiy frost and unbearable sintering, dryness and altogether, there are sharp drops in the weather (if frog spati is in the yard of the cake, and from the wound - it is angry and not enough freezing. picture of the ninishnim Moscow vlіtku!).
All the times of joy are added with skin rock by 6.3% (Div. Graph). This tendency will be saved until 2015. A spoonful of honey: learn about Chergov's cataclysm, we will be back! Soon our forecasters will launch a new supercomputer. І obіtsyaut, even so, you can accurately transfer 90% of misfortunes!
Ninebezpechn_she hour of fate, come forth, summer! 70% of non-weather conditions are due from week to week. Until then, more often than not we are not beaten or frozen, but blown: 36% of all cases of extreme foul weather are like hurricanes, squalls and tornadoes.
Climate change for 15 years: forecasts and reality
In the 90s of the 20th century, the boules were proponated to complete the details, as it was good for their creators, mathematical models, so that they could predict the future of the climate on Earth in the nearest ten years. Not long ago a group of rіznih lands I adjusted the forecasts from the team, which actually went beyond the last 15 years. Z'yasuvalosya, how good will the transfer of change in the atmosphere in carbon dioxide gas and acceptable - cold temperature. The offense of the indicator has grown in succession to the earlier emerging trends. And the axis of the middle rivn of the Svitovoy ocean, the growth is shvid, less ochikuvalosya. From 1990 to 2005, the price of wine increased by approximately 4 cm, and the amount transferred only by 2 cm.
In order to transfer us to cleanse us climatic changes, to spiral around to complete folding mathematical models. And the models will be based on the fact that they were already in the forefront of rock, and on the intelligent interconnection of physical processes, which are seen on the surface of our planet. It is necessary for the nobility, for example, how they tied between themselves the change in the atmosphere of greenhouse gases and the temperature, for example, from the temperature to lay down the camp of the greatest icemen (and the stench may not be only tanuti in the warmer Antarctic, ale and the central regions, for example there I started to see more drops). The camp of lodoviks, in its own heart, is directly recognized on the rivni of the Svitovoy ocean. chim more water on the planet they are tied in ice, just below the ocean.
The transfer of models, proponated in the 1990s, from the time, which became effective over the last 15 years, was sent by a group of people from the , Nimechchina). The boules were based on the scenarios, proponated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) experts group. I would like to predict the prices published in 2001, the stench was grounded on the tribute that had been taken away until 1990, and they didn’t give a big warning. The results of the transformation of reality with the model rozrakhunikov brought by Ramstorf and his colleagues in the statistics, published recently in the journal Science. the present hour. Subtle subtle lines - real data, goods subtle - average real data, showing the main trend. Dotted lines indicate forecast data and are given at a wide range of intervals (regions, prepared with a blue color). The change in temperature and the level of the ocean is given as a result of the line trend in the world overturned by it in the 1990s (taken as zero). Small. from the negotiated statistics in Science.
Yak can be seen from the hovering at the statti (and created here) graphs, the dynamics instead of carbon dioxide (top panel) for 1990, the rock was good for the transferred trend. CO2 data were taken from a number of Vimiryuvan, conducted by a geophysical observatory on the Mauna Loa Observatory in the Hawaiian Islands. And some of them are all the same as a drink, then the average value for all the earthly couples is less than three because of the insignificant, but rather to take the difference between the winter and three halves of our
On the graph, you can see good things, too, small, but superbly regular calls instead of CO2, which are the result seasonal changes in the activity of terrestrial growth. Intensive photosynthesis of roselin in the end of spring and a little to produce before the CO2 in every day decreases and reaches the minimum on the cob in autumn. The processes, which lead to the entry of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, for the purpose of photosynthesis, are responsible for the development of all organisms (in the first place, bacteria and fungi, organic speech), І spalyuvannya human fire. The very seasonal maximum of CO2 change in the atmosphere is brought to the ear of spring.
The average temperature (middle panel of the graph) is growing, well, when there is a lot of pressure, as it is important to transfer, a bit of stench є the result of a bitter cold weather in the dynamical atmosphere and ocean currents... For 16 years, starting from 1990, the average temperature on the Earth has grown by 0.33 ° C. The value, in the outward form of the forecasts of the IPCC model, is not located at the upper boundary of the corridor of permissible values.
The central line of the possible trend of change in temperature was insured in the model of the temperature, because when the CO2 in the atmosphere increased by two times, the temperature increased by 3 °, and the extreme values of the upper middle intervals (between the "corridor" ° і 4.2 ° at a supply of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Possibly, the reason for the change in the forecast of the model and the performance is tied to it, but the carbon dioxide gas has a strong effect on the temperature, it does not go well. The best explanation is that there is a legacy of underestimation of cooling airways, which can be like a natural prowess, so it was confirmed as a result of the state's dignity of people. Nareshty, not included, that the deyake of seeing the values of the forecasts explained is to explain the internal variable of the climatic system itself, the inherited dynamics of the modalities of the components that we are not familiar with.
Naymensh zadovilnym the forecast of the level of the Svitovoy ocean (lower panel of the graph). For the last hour, the growth was better than it was before being transferred to the IPCC model. In reality, the increase (according to the data of the compatriots) from 1993 to 2006 ripped in the middle 3.3 ± 0.4 mm per rik, while the model in the best way gave less than 2 mm per rik. The author of the statute indicates that the ocean has grown over the last 20 years, but not for the last twenty years before 115 years. Sponsored by the meaning of the extreme figures, such as those in the model, such as small-scale and knitted with the so-called “unimportant in the ice on land”. I would like to make the main applications in the midst of the ocean to make a simpler thermal expansion of the water mass at an increase in global temperature, I mean, mabut, I underestimated the role of the growth and tannins of ice. In the meantime, the most recent publications on this topic should be reminded of an insignificant inflow of ice hockey players from Greenland and Antarctica to the ocean.
The author will come before the week, before the scientific forecasts of the change in the climate should be set with a vigorous earnestness. Going instead of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and changing the flow of energy. And in the fall of the ocean (the best option for the forecast), the effect was more threatening, it was not transmitted.
Tribute to the monitoring of the current climate of Russia to show the rest of the rock the tendency to warmer has significantly improved. So, for the period 1990-2000 RR. Charging and attachments and may not be slowed down to rise (the end of the 30th day of the trip was getting colder in remote regions). The warmer is growing more intensively on the way to the Urals.
Small. 3. Timing rows of spacious averaged anomalies of the average temperature of the groundwater temperature for the territory of the Russian Federation, Pivnіchno Pіvkulіі earthly kulі, 1901-2004 rr. Chervoni Linii - the meaning of glazed ranks (according to the results, recognized in the Institute of Global Climate and Ecology of the Russian State Hydrometeorological Service and the Russian Academy of Sciences).
Vikoristovuvanim in the whole prognosis on the way to assessments of the improvement of the climate on the cob of the XXI century. є extrapolation in maybutnє quiet tendencies of change climatic characteristics, Yakі spastered in the last ten years. At an hourly interval of 5-10 rocky (tobto 2010-2015), it is generally permissible, it’s more, but for the same last period it’s possible to be careful about the changes in temperature and change the temperature. Climate models in new scenarios The development of the global economy (growth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere) klimatu (MGEZK).
Small. 4. The rise in the temperature of the surface wind for Russia in relation to the baseline values for the period 1971-2000 rubles, the insurance coverage for the ensemble of models for the period up to 2030 (according to the results given by the Head Geophysical Observatory named after A.I. Voykov)
The distribution of model assessments (assessment of the latest models to the ensemble) characterizes the area seen by the color, 75% of the average model values are consumed in the yak. The level of significance 95% of the average for the ensemble of temperature change models is designated by two horizontal lines.
The forecast of the change in climate, based on the results of extrapolation, shows how the trend in warming in Russia until 2010-2015 is actually supported. save up to adulthood, in the period from 2000 r, the average temperature of the surface water is 0.6 ± 0.2 ° C. climatic zones and in the new season and in the future of the hydrometeorological regime ( temperature regime, The mode of litter, which is hydro-logical to the regime of rychok and water reserves, to the regime of the Sea of Azov and rychok) will manifest itself in a different way. Until 2015, in a larger part of the territory of Russia, the temperature increase will be increased by approximately 1 ° C with the new variations in the other regions of the country. Vlіtku, in general, ochіkuvanne warmer will be weaker, less charged. In an average warehouse 0.4 ° C.
It is predicted further the growth of the middle number of fallen goods, but it is more important for the growth of the average number of fallen goods in cold period... At the transitional part of the territory of Russia, there will be a drop of 4-6% more, less per hour. The most recent increase in the number of dropped off will be checked at the weekend of the Skhidny Siberia (up to 7-9%).
Transferred in 5-10 years of accumulated mass to the ear, birch trees may rise behind the sign of tendencies in the Russian regions. In a large part of the European territory of Russia (in the Republic of Komi, the Arkhangelsk region and the Ural region) On the territory of Russia (Zakhidna and Skhidna Siberia, Dalekiy Skhid), there will be a 2-4% increase in savings.
As a result of the well-known change in the temperature regime and in the fall of up to 2015, the daily flow rate in the Central, Privolzhye federal districts and on the new arrival of the Winter-Zahidny federal district - 60-50% of winter storage Spasterezhuvanogo in Danish hour. In the second federal districts, there is also an increase in the flow of the river, as it will be known between 5 and 40%. At the same time, in the regions of the Black Earth Center and in the first part of the Siberian Federal District, the rate of change in the spring period will change by 10-20%.
The results of the analysis were made for the last ten years and for the transfer of changes to the climate of the Russian Federation, to indicate the growth of the variability of the characteristics of the class, but, in its own right, we are led to the growth of the brightness, in the meantime
According to the assessments of the All-Russian Meteorological Organizations, the third international organizations, the Holy Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and a number of other organizations natural diseases... To bring most of the most successful hydrometeorological events (more than 50% of the out-of-the-box business from non-safe natural events). For the assessment of the Svitovoy Bank for Reconstruction and development, the small caps from the inflow of unfailing hydrometeorological events (OY) on the territory of Russia to become 30-60 billion rubles.
Statistical data about OY, which created a social and economic game in 1991-2005, show that in the territory of Russia it is practically a skinny day in the future. It was especially noticeable in 2004 and 2005, when it was registered 311 and 361 unsatisfactory appearances for sure. The shorter growth of the number of OY becomes close to 6.3%. This tendency is to be taken care of and over.
Small. 5.
Nybіlsh schilny to the winners of the children OYa pіvnіchno-Caucasian and Volgo-V'yatsky economical regions, Sakhalin, Kemerovo, Ulyanovsk, Penzenska, Ivanivska, Lipetsk, Bіlgorodіstanka, Respublika
70% of OY, as they have created a social and economical game, will be brought to a warm period (quarter-zhovten). The main tendency of the increase in the number of types of OYs is indicated in the tsei period. The shorter growth of the number of OYa in the warm period in the middle becomes 9 manifestations in the rіk. Tsya tendencies to be protected and nadal until 2015
More than 36% of all OI are brought to the group of chotiroh appearances - even a strong wind, hurricane, squall, tornado. For the tribute of the Munich Reinsurance Company (Munich Re Group), for example, in 2002 39% of the total number of significant natural disasters during the fall of the season itself, so good use of the statistics for Russia. While the occurrences are included in the group of the most important predicted OBs, when predicting the most important ones, gaps are often observed.
Small. 6. ROSPODIL of the total number of vipadkiv OYa (for the periods of rock) for 1991-2005 rr. (In a cold period, leaf fall і brisket in front of rock і very much, lute і birch trees in flowing rock vvazayut)
Small. 7. A fraction of the number of OYa types (for the types of insecure pests) for 1991-2005 rr. (Based on the results given by the State Institution "VNIIGMI-MCD"): 1 - strong wind, hurricane, squall, tornado; 2 - strong notice, strong snig, iron; 3 - strong boards, trivial boards, angry, hail, thunderstorm; 4 - frost, frost, strong sinter; 5 - spring flood, flood, flood; 6 - avalanche, mudflow; 7 - dry; 8 - supervised pozhezhana nebezpeka; 9 - heavy fog, sawing storms, sharp wintry weather, harsh weather, stronger hviliuvannya and іn.
An analysis of the practice of predicting OY in the Russian Federation will show that, for the rest of the five years of missed OE, 87% fall on the most important predicted convective phenomena (strong, angry, hail, etc.)
Note. For their intensity and triviality, those who were spared in the last rock of convective manifestations can be brought to the line of small and small ones. So, for example, in the Kirovsk region on 17 April 2004 there was a hail of viglyadi kryzhany plates with a size of up to 70-220 mm, as a result of which there was a proliferation of agricultural crops on an area of 1000 hectares.
Zones of advanced forecasting (the highest number of omissions in all types of OY) on the territory of the Russian Federation є Pivnichny Caucasus, Shidna Siberia and the Volga region.
Unimportant to the predictability of the forecast, over the last 5 years there has been a positive tendency towards the growth of justice (increase) in OY, as they have created significant economic gains in the population and economy of Russia. Spilny advances to the Russian State Hydrometeorological Service and the Svitovoy Bank for Reconstruction and development showed that up to 2012, as a result of the technical re-equipment of the Hydrometeorological Service, the truth about the increase of up to 90%.
We are important for the inherited climate change for the territory of Russia є problems related to floods and floods. With all the spontaneous vicissitudes on the little rivers, they take the first place for the total middle-class bitches (it’s straightforward to spend from every turn to get 50% of the backstabbing from all OYs).
For Bagatokh places and populated territories of Russia, the recurrence of partial flooding is characteristic of 1 time in 8-12 rocks, and in the places of Barnaul, Bijsk (in front of Altai), Orsk, Ufa (in front of the Urals), part of the flood is 1 flood - 3 rock. Especially not safe fortunes with great flooded areas and trivial sites of water took place in the rest of the rock. So, in 2001, a significant school was built to the state of the land in the flooded low places and settlements in the pools of the rivers Oleni, Angari, in 2002 - in the pools of the rivers of Kuban and Terek.
Until 2015, in connection with the forecasted increase in the maximum water reserves in the snowy weather, the pressure of spring floods may grow in the rivers of the Arkhangelsk region, the Republic of Komi, the sub-regions of the Russian Federation, In areas where there are some catastrophic and not safe conditions in the period of the spring period, the ice congestion will accelerate deeper (the central and winter regions of the ETR, Shidny Siberia, the late Russian period of the Asian period) up to 24 dB (in the Danish hour the won become up to 12 dB). At the same time, the maximum vitrati leads to a twofold increase in the average value. Until 2015, the rock is about twice as clear of the increase in the frequency of mash on the river Lena (Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).
Areas z high ravines spring and spring-summer events on the territory in front of the mountains in the Urals, Altai, the small day of Western Siberia in the vicinity of rock can be formed before the hour of war, the maximum of which is 5 times the average annual maximum vitrate.
On the densely populated territories of the Pivnichny Caucasus, the basin of the river Don and the second between the Volga regions (Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories, Rostov, Astrakhan and Volgogradska oblasts), every five hours in one hour to intensify one rock In the period up to 2015, an increase in the frequency of catastrophic events is predicted in the period of the spring thailand spring-summer majesty.
To clear up the increase in 2-3 times the frequency of floods, surrounded by strong boards, on the Far Descent and in Primorye (Primorsky and Khabarovsk Territories, Amursk and Sakhalin Oblasts, Evreyska AT). In the mountainous and frontal regions of the Pivnichny Caucasus (Republics of the Pivnichny Caucasus, Stavropol Territory), Western and Skidny Sayan in the summer period, there are some floodplains and debris flows.
In connection with the forecasted climatic changes in St. Petersburg in the nearest 5-10 years, the growth rate of catastrophic events with the growth of more than 3 m (such 100 times was one time in the future) It is necessary in the yakomog more terms to add and to enter into the complex in order to win the place of the fortunes.
At the bottom of the river. Terek (Republic of Dagestan) in the most important rocky, too, after ochіkuvati, not without catastrophic floods (such floods occur once every 10-12 years). The situation is accelerated by the fact that in these regions, the river bed is known to be in the middle of the river bed and actively developing channel processes. Here it is necessary to designate the dams for the collapse of the dam and the infliction of material damage to the settlements and the Silskoy government.
In order to reduce the number of times during floods and times, and to reduce the life of people, it is necessary to concentrate on the first place in the first order to concentrate the power of the state and the authorities of the sub ї), on the order of land use in the zones of riziku, modern systems insurance of all pockets, such as is deceived lands, On a thorough regulatory and legal basis, which gives a clear indication of the status of state authorities and municipal administrations for the inheritance of catastrophic powers.
A number of unsafe phenomena will be the mother of the mice in connection with the transfer of the winter frost until 2015, keep in mind the close of the cordon. At the zones, the width of the warehouse is from dozens of kilometers in the Irkutsk region, the Khabarovsk region and on the weekends of the ETR (Republic of Komi, Arkhangelsk region), up to 100-150 km in the Hanti-Mansiakhall Republic to the ground, like a trivial kilka ten years. To accommodate the risk of unpleasant and insecure processes, such as the formation of grains and the bulk of the thawed soil (solifluction), as well as the significant subsidence of the surface for the sinking of the soil and the water from the thaw. This is the time to destroy the negative influx on the economy of the regions (and especially on the economy, engineering and transport equipment), and on the life of the population.
Until 2015, an increase in the number of days with an even unsafe warehouse is up to 5 days per season for a large part of the territory of the country. At the same time, there will be an increase in the number of days with an ever-unsafe environment of high intensity, as well as an ever-unsafe environment of medium intensity. The triviality of an even unsafe environment (more than 7 days per season) on the occasion of Khantimansiyk AT, in Kurgan, Omsk, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo and Tomsk
Doctor of Physics and Mathematics B. Luchko, Professor MIFI.
The Sonce is a zvychana star, who does not see his powers and provisions from the world of stars of the Chumatsky Way. by lightness, size, mass won a typical middle peasant. Also, the middle month of the loan is in the Galaxy: not close to the center, not at the edge, but in the middle, like along the disk, so along the radius (8 kiloparsecs from the galactic nucleus). Alone, demanding to think, I see from the greatness of the stars in the fact that on the third planet of the great domination of the Galaxy 3 billion years ago there was a life and, having conceived a number of winks, saved himself, giving rise to the idea of the revolution homo sap іstien. Lyudin, yak shukak and addictive, having populated the whole earth, now occupy himself with the preliminaries of the new life with the mark of "scho", "yak" and "chomu". What, for example, is the origin of the earthly climate, how the earthly weather forms, and why is it so fast and in an hour to change? At the same time, nutrition has long been discarded as a result of priming. and for the rest of the period, in response to the global predictions of the atmosphere and the ocean, the meteorological service has been opened, no housekeeper can do without such an incident. The axis is only visible, but only some forecasts will be carried out in the halep, and even the gentlemen, pilots, alpine, not even talking about the orach and ribalok, but the weather services are horrible. This means that not everything will still be clear in the weather cuisine, and it is necessary to respectfully turn up in the folding synoptic appearances and sounds. One of the main ones is the earth - sun, which will give us warmth and light, albeit at an hour, like a pandori's box, to be set free by hurricane, dry land, bend and extreme "wait". What is the origin of the "dark force" of the earthly climate, in general, to finish what is acceptable in some cases, what is going on on the other planets?
Comes rocky live in імлі.
O. Pushkin
CLIMATE I WEATHER
The earthly climate is characterized by two main factors: sleepy post-term and nahil axis of the Earth's wrapping up to the orbital area. Sleepy postyna - because of sleepy radioactivity, so come to Earth, 1.4 . 10 3 W / m 2 - efficiently in high accuracy (up to 0.1%), both for short (seasons, rock), as well as for advanced (capital, milion rock) scales. The reason for this is the strength of sleepiness L = 4 . 10 26 Tue, when thermonuclear "mines" start in the center of Sontsya, and even the circular orbit of the Earth (R= 1,5 . 10 11 m). The "middle" position meant that we were marvelously tolerant of its impact - no change in lightness and stream of sleepy radioactivity, no changes in the temperature of the photosphere. Spookyna, the star is temporarily important. The first climate of the Earth is strictly singing - hot in the equatorial zone, de Sonce may be a skinny day in zenity, warm and warm in the middle latitudes and cold near the poles, there is ice and ice hanging from behind the formation.
Insha ric weather. In the skin latitudinal zone, there is a manifestation of a deyake appearance according to a designated climatic standard. Buvaє і charge a long way and swell brunks on the trees. To swallow, and in the fall of the year to swoop in neglect with piercing main windows, and for an hour - with a fall. The weather is a concrete realization of the climate of a given latitude with possible (the rest of the hour, more frequent) emergencies-anomalies.
MODEL REFRIGERATION
Anomalies wait a bit shkidlivi, the stench makes a majestic shkodi. Povens, drylands, suvor winter ruined silskoe empowerment, led to hunger and epidies. Storms, hurricanes, anger, maybe they did not spare anything on their way, they mesmerized people from the rosy days. Independent victims of weather anomalies. Tidy up the weather, help it out and show it uncomfortably. The energy of the weather conditions is not allowed to change at once, in the energy of the hour, if gas, naphtha, uranium gave us great power over nature. Energy to the hurricane of the middle hand (10 17 J) is due to the total output of all power stations in three years. Unsuccessful try zupiniti nasuvannya resentment were afraid in the last century. In the 1980s, the US Air Force carried out a head-on attack on a hurricane (operation "Fierce Storm"), but they showed their lack of strength ("Science and Life" No.).
But all the same science and technology could help. If you can’t stream the blow of the posed element, then, you can, you want to give it to you, so you can easily live through it. They began to develop, especially successfully with the introduction of modern computers, model development, wait a minute. Nypotuzhn_shі computers, the most complex rosrakhunkovі programs at a time - from forecasters and vіyskovyh. The results are not clogged.
Until the end of the last century, the synoptic models reached such a level of sophistication that they began to describe well the processes that go into the ocean (the main factor of the earth's weather), on land, in the atmosphere, including the lower weather, - a sphere, a troposphere. It was reached to reach a decent amount of time for the main weather factors (the temperature of the weather, instead of CO2 and other "greenhouse" gases, heating the surface of the ball to the ocean) with real values. At the same time, the graphs of rosy and dynamic anomalies of temperature for the last century were displayed.
Such models can be done - the stench has become a robotic tool for forecasting the weather. Weather anomalies (їх force, time, moment appear), appear, you can transfer. This means that є hour and the possibility of getting ready to hit the elements. Forecasts have become a daily routine, and Shkodi, scowled by weather anomalies, has quickly passed.
Particularly the place was occupied by pre-city construction forecasts, for dozens and hundreds of rockets, as critical for economists, politicians, heads of state organizations - "captains" happy birthday... Infected as a result of several pre-city forecasts for the XXI century.
WHAT IS THE CENTURY COMING READY FOR US?
The forecast for such a great term can be only approximate. Weather parameters are represented by significant tolerances (intervals of pardons, as accepted in mathematical statistics). In order to vrahuvati all the possibilities of the future, a number of development scenarios will be launched. The Earth’s system is even more unstable, it’s better models, it’s overridden by tests of past rockets, and it’s possible to admit a prorahunka when it’s festering in the distant future.
Algorithms for carrying out rozrahunіv go from two prototypes: 1) the actions of changing weather factors (optimistic option), 2) їх thriving stribok, which leads to the last changes in the climate (pesimistic option).
In the forecast of a step change to the climate of the XXI century ("Read more about the working group of the international committee for change to the climate", Shanghai, since 2001), the results of seven model scenarios are suggested. The main change is the warming of the Earth, which has covered everything in the past century, trivial and long, supervised by the increase in the number of "greenhouse gases" (in the main CO 2 and SO 2), rising surface temperatures until the new advances in the ocean (in the middle at 0.5 m per century). In the other half of the century, some of the scenarios are causing a decline in the number of "greenhouse gases" as a result of the fencing of the industrial climate into the atmosphere, the concentration of which will not be strongly reflected in the current situation. The most significant changes in weather factors: more maximum temperatures and more hot days, less minimum temperature and fewer frosty days are higher in all terrestrial regions, changes in temperature fluctuations, and a greater intensity of falloff. There may be changes to the climate - more dry and less dry droughts, more drought in winter and great intensity of tropical cyclones.
Five rockies have passed, reminiscent of strong anomalies (terrible winter Atlantic hurricanes, as Pacific typhoons do not come from them, Suvora winter 2006 rocky in winter, weather surprise, weather) nove storichchya, Mabut, pishov not for an optimistic way. Evidently, as soon as possible, the appearance of the transferred step-by-step development can be smoothed out;
SCENARIO OF THE RISE ROUH ZMINI KLIMATU XXI STOLITTYA (P. SHVARTZ, D. Rendell, ZHOVTEN 2003)
This is not just a forecast, but a scary is a signal of alarm for the "captains" of the light, the calmness of the step-by-step change of climate: it can be adjusted by small cards (protocols-rosters) in the required direction, and you can not be afraid if you are in control of the situation. The new forecast is based on the tendencies, which have brought about the growth of extreme natural anomalies. Vvazhayut, wіn start zbuvatisya. Svit pishov for a pesimistic way.
The first decade (2000-2010 rocky) - the continuation of the gradual warming, but not for a special triviality, but all with a mindful pace of acceleration. Pivnichna America, Europe, Chastkovo Pivdenna Africa will be 30% warmer and less frosty, the number and intensity of weather anomalies (dry weather, hurricanes) will increase, but it will be grateful. All the same, this kind of weather cannot be seen especially by the suvor, threatening the order of the people.
Until 2010, the fate will accumulate the same number of unfavorable changes, which will lead to a spicy haircut to the climate in an absolutely non-transferable direction. Hydrological cycle (viparovannya, vipadannya fallen, flow of water) to accelerate, so that the average temperature of the drink is increased even more. Water vapor is a natural "greenhouse gas" Through the adjustment of the average surface temperature, hang the forest, the pasture, come back to the mass of the leaves (you can see at once, how important it is to fight with them). The concentration of CO 2 grows up on the floor, so that the water of the oceans and the dews of the land starts to wither, so the pace of the "step-by-step change" begins, the process stops. Greenhouse effect before rozgin. There is a rise in the snow in the mountains, in the polar tundra, in the area of polar ice, it is fast to speed up, so to greatly reduce the sleepy albedo. Wet and dry temperatures are growing catastrophically. Strong winds through the great gradient of temperature wickle the food storms, bring up the soil to vivitryuvannya. There is no control over the element and power, I want three things to do. The pace of the growth of the climate is gaining momentum. Bida will love all regions of the world.
On the cob of another decade, there will be confidence in thermal circulation in the ocean, and wine is the main creator, wait a minute. Through the great number of boards and tannins of the polar ice of the ocean, you will become more comprehensible. The extraordinary transfer of warm waters from ekvatora to the middle latitude will be used.
Golfstrom, the warmth of the Atlantic current from the Pivne America to Europe, the guarantor of the peaceful climate of the Pivnichnoy Pivkuli, the assistant. The warmer in the whole region will change with the sharp cold weather and the decrease in the fall. All in all, for the rocky vector, wait, turn 180 degrees, the climate is cold and dry.
In a whole lot of computers, the models do not give an unambiguous answer: how will it become for the sake of it? When the climate of the winter season is more cold and dry, it’s not going to come to a catastrophe, but a new ice-cold period has tripled in hundreds of rockets, like it’s been on Earth more than once, and not so long ago (Maliy 8 12,700 rocks to that).
The most important option, which is really possible, is such. Ruynivny dry land in the regions of virobniztva products of farming and great community of the population (Pivnichna America, Europe, China). Decrease in the fall, dry out rychok, hanging in the fresh water. Fast food stocks, mass hunger, widening of the epidemics, along with the population from the zones of dashing. Increase in international tension, guilt for dzherela food, food and energy resources. At the same hour in the areas of traditionally dry klimatu (Asia, Pivdenna America, Australia) - torrential boards, povens, the collapse of strong-willed people, who have not been attached to such a wealth in theology. In this case, there is also the rapidity of the Silskoy government, the failure of the products to be consumed. Collapse of the bitchy svitoustroy. Rizke, on Milyardi, the rapid number of the population. Leaving civilization for the capital, the arrival of savage rulers, religion, the collapse of science, culture, morality. Armageddon in the accurately predicted viglyad!
Rizke, unsuitable for a change to the climate, to which light it is simply not possible to adapt.
The idea of the script is not important: the need to live term new entries, but it is not clear. A lot of carnivals, championships, thoughtless shows, illumination of lights, as if there was a bit of "zrobiti", it’s just not beastly ugly: "Vcheni lyakayut, but we are not afraid!"
SONYACHNA ACTIVITY I Terrestrial WEATHER
Є, however, the third option is to predict the earthly climate, the old ear of capital with anomalies, but not to lead to a universal catastrophe. The wine of the foundation on the guardians of our star, as with all the apparent calm, all the same volodya bright activity.
Sleepy activity - the manifestation of a zonite convective zone, which occupies a third of the sleepy radius, through a large temperature gradient (from 10 6 to mid-to 6 . 10 3 Before on the photosphere, the hot plasma is called "boiling streams", generating local magnetic fields that are tens of thousands of times larger than the Sleep field. All spared the special activity of the amalgamation of processes in the convective zone. Granulation of the photosphere, hot maydans (torches), lateral protuberances (arcs of speech, which are generated by magnetic power lines), dark beaches and groups of beaches - tubes of local magnetic fields, chromospheric accelerated particles and heating with plasma). Into the whole tangle of appearances on the visible disk of the Sontsya is embedded a sleepy crown (heated up to millions of degrees upper, the atmosphere is even higher, the atmosphere is twisted). chimalu role in sleep activity, there are coronal condensations and dykes, which are spontaneous in X-rays, and the mass of wikidi s corona (coronal wikidi masi, CME). Numerically and intelligently show sleepy activity.
Most recent impressions, acceptance index of activity - Wolf number W, Introduced in the 19th century, as a number of dark beaches and groups on a sleepy disk. The face of the Sontsya pokryty constantly changing with a lot of spring flowers, which will lead to the inability of his activity. On c. 27 at the bottom of the readings of the graph of average values W (t), Rejection by direct monitoring of Sontsya (the last of the last century) and updates beyond the limits of caution up to 1600 rock (the light did not appear "by sight"). It can be seen that the number of beaches is falling - cycles of activity. One cycle is trivial in the middle 11 rock (more precisely, 10.8 rock), ale є pink rose (from 7 to 17 rock), the change is not strictly periodic. Harmonious analysis of victory to a friend - to vikov, the period of which, maybe not strictly vitriolic, comes ~ 100 years. On the graph, the wine is shown on purpose - with such a period the amplitude of the sleep cycles Wmax changes. In the middle of the skin column, the amplitude reached its maximum values (Wmax ~ 150-200), on the stick it changed to Wmax = 50-80 (on the cob of the 19th and 20th centuries) and to move to a borderline small level (cob of the 18th century). Stretching a trivial time interval, called the Maunder Minimum (1640-1720 rock), no cyclicity was spared, and the number of beaches on the disc was counted as odd ones. The Maunder phenomenon, which is promoted in other children, in terms of luminosity and spectral class close to Sonts, is not called the intelligence mechanism and the convective zone and glare, as a result of which the generation of magnetic floods is not called. Glib "rozkopki" showed that they had been on the Sonce earlier and earlier: Minimumi Shperer (1420-1530 rock) and Wolf (1280-1340 rock). It can be seen that the stench trap in the middle of 200 rock and three times 60-120 rock - at the end of the hour Sonce yak bi falls into a lethargic sleep, feeling like an active robot. Pislya Maunder's Minimum passed over 300 years. It’s time to reread it again.
Here the winery is a direct link to the theme of earthly weather and serpents to climate. The Chronicle of Hours Maunder's Minimum is influenced by the abnormal behavior of the weather, close to what we see in our days. Throughout Europe (with the least amount of time around the whole winter season), it was wondrously cold winters at the end of the hour. The canals froze, it’s about making pictures of the Dutch maystras, the Thames froze, and the Londoners went off to wailing on the ice of the river. Surrounded by ice to navigate the Sea of \ u200b \ u200bPivnichne, progressed by Golfstrom, as a result of which navigation was resumed. The Tsі Roki have practically not spared polarity syayva, but in order to change the intensity of sleepy weather. Dikhannya Sontsya, as it was going to sleep for an hour, weakened, and itself called to the serpent klimata. The weather became cold, windy, humid.
SONYACHNE DIKHANNA
Yak, for the help of whom is sleep activity transferred to the Earth? They are guilty as the material, as the postponed. There can be such "carriers" as: a zigzag part of the spectrum of sleepy vipromynuvannya (ultraviolet, X-ray), sleepy weather, vikidi speeches from the hour of sleepy sleepers, KVM. The results of Sonts' warning in the 23rd cycle (1996-2006 rock), carried out by the space devices SOHO, TRACE (USA, Europe), CORONAS-F (Russia), showed that the head "carriers" of the drowsy flood were using the KVM. The stench in the middle of the earth will begin to create the earthly weather, and all the "nose" will add to the picture (div. "Science and Life" No.).
KVM became lecturers for an hour, having learned its role in the sleepy-earthly sounds, as they have been since the 1970s. For the frequency of vypuskannya, mass and energy stench to overturn all іnshi "carriers". With a mass of 1-10 billion tons and liquidity (1-3 . 10 km / s plasma energy may cause kinetic energy ~ 10 25 J. To fly to the Earth for a dib, stink a strong inflow into the earth's magnetosphere, and through it to the upper atmosphere. Mechanism in flux to finish the vaccinations. About new healthier Radiansky geophysicist A.L. Chizhevsky more than 50 years wild rice yogo rozumiv E.R. Mustel with sportsmen (1980s rock). Nareshty, in our days, we have been informed by the warnings of American and European supporters. The orbital station SOHO, leading without interruptions for more than 10 rockets, recorded close to 1500 KVM. The SAMPEX and POLAR companions meant the appearance of wikis on the Earth and made the result injected.
In the outlying rice, the KVM was injected onto the earth's weather at once, kindly. Having reached the outskirts of the planet, the magnetic gloom expanded around the earth's magnetosphere along the cordon (magneto-pause), the fragments of the magnetic field did not start the charge of plasma particles in the middle. The blow of the gloom on the magnetosphere generates the collapse of the magnetic field, which manifests itself like a magnetic storm. The magnetosphere is compressed by a stream of sleepy plasmas, a concentration of power lines of growth, and at the very moment the development of a storm is brought up to a new moment (similar to the one that spawns sleepyheads on the Sontsi, a simple, simple-minded one). Magnetic energy was seen on the accelerated parts of the radio belt (electronics, positrons, proton, of course, low energies), as, having added energy to tens or hundreds of MeV, it can’t be done. magnetic field Earth. To see the flow of accelerated particles into the atmosphere of the geomagnetic ekvator. In conjunction with the atoms of the atmosphere, the charged particles transmit their energy to them. A new "energetic dzherelo" appears, pouring into the upper sphere of the atmosphere, and through it, the instability to vertical displacements - on the lower sphere, including the troposphere. Tsei "dzherelo", dressings with sleepy activity, "rozhitu" weather, changing harshness, generating cyclones and storms. The head bag of yogo engaging - destabilization wait: calmness changes with a storm, dry land - with bright litter, planks - dry. It is noteworthy that all the weather changes are repaired close to the adequate: tropical cyclones that grow into a hurricane, wintry muson, a riddle El Niño ("Ditina") - the all-important guardian, wait, unattainable The Pacific and so it is not self-sufficient knowledge.
Zgіdno "sleepy scenario" of weather anomalies, the forecast for the XXI century is more quiet. The climate of the Earth changes insignificantly, but the mode of the weather is known to be dim, as it will be expected when the sleepy activity is overwhelmed. It may not be even stronger (more cold, less wakeful, winters and more summer months), as sleepy activity drops to Wmax ~ 50, as it was on the cob XIX and XX centuries. It can become more serious (cooling the climate of the whole Pivnichnoe pivkuly), as the new Maunder minimum (Wmax< 10). В любом случае похолодание климата будет не кратковременным, а продолжится, вместе с аномалиями погоды, несколько десятилетий.
So check us at the closest hour, show the 24th cycle, which at once will be repaired. With the great ymovіrnіstyu, based on the analysis of sleepy activity for 400 years, the amplitude Wmax will become less, the sleepiness is significantly weaker. Need to follow the coronal mass wikids. Їх number, rate, lastness is the beginning of the weather on the cob of the XXI century. And, obviously, it is absolutely necessary to have intelligence, well, to see the beloved eye, if the activity of the head of the world is active. The tse of zavdannya is not only science - from physics Sontsya, astrophysics, geophysics. This solution is fundamentally necessary for the minds to preserve their lives on Earth.
literature
Summary for Policymakers, A Report of Working Group I of IPCC (Shanghai, January 2001), Internet.
Schwartz R., Randall D. An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario (October 2003), Internet.
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Luchkiv B. Sonyachne infused onto the earth's weather. Science session MIFI-2006 // Collection of Science Works, vol. 7, p. 79.
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